Biomethan im GEG – greenfuelpartners | Sustainable and Biological Fuels

Your Partner for reliable greenfuel brokerage

Great demand for biomethane in Germany‘s building sector expected

A dena analysis estimates that demand for biomethane in Germany will increase in order to meet the requirements of the GEG (Building Energy Act) by 2040. Biomethane demand in Germany for gas heating is forecast to be between 0.5 and 1.8 TWh in 2027 as a result of the GEG 2023. Biomethane demand is expected to rise to 30.2 TWh in the “mid” scenario by 2040. This corresponds to an annual growth rate in biomethane demand for gas heating systems in Germany of ~28%.

The calculation of biomethane demand is based on the building stock in the Fraunhofer Institute's long-term scenario T45-PtG/PtL1 and assumes different scenarios for the future development of the gas heating market: Scenario “low”, assumes that only 30% of the calculated gas heating sales will be replaced by gas heating in the future. Scenario “mid” represents the middle ground and assumes that 65% of the estimated gas heating sales will be replaced by gas heating systems. Scenario “high” assumes that 100% of the estimated gas heating sales will be replaced by gas heating.

Objective of the GEG: The Building Energy Act (GEG) aims to make the building sector more climate-neutral by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting the use of renewable energies.
Biomethane as an energy source: Biomethane, as a renewable energy source, is likely to play a stronger role in the heating sector, especially if hydrogen production does not increase as planned.
Forecasted demand: The demand for biomethane could increase to between 13.4 and 44.6 TWh by 2040 if new gas heating systems continue to be installed and hydrogen is not sufficiently available.
Current use: The share of biomethane in heat generation from renewable energies in Germany was about 2% in 2022.
Challenges: To meet the increasing demand, either the existing biomethane potential from residual materials must be better utilized or imports must be increased.

There are several requirements in the GEG that significantly influence the additional demand for biomethane in Germany. By 2040, gas heating systems installed outside of a heating plan from January 2024 onwards must generate 60 percent of their heat from biomethane or hydrogen. In municipalities with heat planning, 65% of gas heating systems must be powered by renewable energy, non-avoidable waste heat or a combination of these sources. In addition, gas boilers installed as peak load boilers in multi-family houses in new development areas must also use 65 percent renewable energy. It is assumed that hydrogen will not play a significant role in the heating market for end users before 2035. The available quantities of hydrogen will initially be required in industry, power and heating plants and the transportation sector.

Are you interested in further information on this topic? Please feel free to contact us. We look forward to talking to you!

Great demand for biomethane in Germany‘s building sector expected

This might also be of interest to you

Keeping the regulatory overview

Biomethane in the EU ETS

Biomethan in the GEG

Guarantees of Origin

The market potential of biomethane

Biomass in the NaBiSy

2024 greenfuelpartners GmbH © All rights reserved