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The European Biogas Association (EBA) estimates an annual biomethane production potential of up to 260 TWh in Europe by 2030. In comparison with the production of 41 TWh in 2022 or with 2018 (20 TWh), the enormous growth predicted by market experts is evident.
A key reason for this assumption is the European Union's goal of increasing biomethane to 340 TWh in 2030 as part of the REPowerEU, which is based on the EU's “Fit for 55” package. On the demand side, current forecasts for biomethane for the same year vary between 244-305 TWh. This would represent a market growth for Europe of more than 350-500% compared to the current demand of 71 TWh.
For Germany, demand is expected to be between 40 and 55 TWh of biomethane in 2030. This corresponds to a market growth of 350-500% compared to the current amount of biomethane fed into the natural gas grid of ~11 TWh (2022). This represents annual growth rates for the biomethane market in Germany and Europe of 20-25% CAGR.
Biomethane demand in Germany is largely driven by the electricity sector and the manufacturing industry. The building and heating sector also plays a central role.
Particularly in the area of generation (heat and electricity), demand will rise significantly over the next few years as a result of the new targets in the Building Energy Act. From 2024, a 65% share of renewable energies will be mandatory for new heating systems and targets will be set for the use of biogas/biomethane from 2029. This is expected to increase demand by 3.5 TWh in 2029 (7.1 in 2035).
A look at the intra-European trading volume of biomethane certificates of origin (CoO) shows strong growth in the last two years. In Q1 of 2022, 425 MWh were traded. Compared to Q12024 with 710, the trading volume has almost doubled. In 2023 as a whole, ~1,225 MWh of biomethane was traded within Europe.
In addition, the EU can open up to non-European markets to import biomethane. The Ukraine alone, for example, has a biomethane potential of around 10 to 54 terawatt hours by 2030. This could easily be transported to Europe via the existing gas pipelines.
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